Famously, Donald Trump is trapped in a mess of his own making with Iran and Israel. And just as famously, there is no way for him to declare victory and withdraw. But what leaks out of The White House into the more public urinals testifies strongly that our president is desperate, yes desperate for an off-ramp. This is to propose an off-ramp, which just may be Trump's best hope.
The trick is to conjure up an excuse for quitting the war with Iran that doesn't claim a U.S. victory but gives Trump someone to blame for quitting other than himself. That someone is Congress.
Should Congress adopt a binding War Powers Resolution commanding an end to the war with Iran, Trump would be equipped to blame Congress for ending the war, to claim that Congress has snatched defeat from the jaws of a U.S. victory. That would still be a loss of face, but not as much face lost as admitting defeat on the battlefield, that His War has failed.
That doesn't get Iran the unconditional U.S. surrender it wants but leaves it in military command of the Strait of Hormuz and via the Houthis, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. And one might expect Trump to decide to abandon the U.S. bases in the Mideast that Iran objects to so Iran has no remaining targets.
That would, however, leave Israel exposed to Iranian missile strikes. But it is already in that position. Considering its lack of defensive interceptor missiles, we might expect Israel to abruptly acquire a more peaceful role.
If we suddenly see more Republican support for a war powers resolution ending the war, we might suspect that Mr. Trump is choosing this off-ramp.
No comments:
Post a Comment